Our model gives Araz a 45% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 26% for İmişli FK.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Araz have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and İmişli FK have done so in 0 of their last 1.