Our model gives Ararat-Armenia a 67% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Van.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ararat-Armenia have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 6, and Van have done so in 2 of their last 3.