Our model gives Ararat-Armenia a 34% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 40% for Celje.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ararat-Armenia have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 6, and Celje have done so in 3 of their last 6.