Our model gives Aral a 88% chance to win this one, against 8% for a draw and 3% for Buxoro University.

Both teams are projected to score in 31% of simulations, against 69% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 70% likelihood against 30% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Aral have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 4, and Buxoro University have done so in 3 of their last 4.