Our model gives Araks Ararat a 69% chance to win this one, against 17% for a draw and 14% for Noah II.

Both teams are projected to score in 63% of simulations, against 37% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 71% likelihood against 29% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Araks Ararat have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Noah II have done so in 3 of their last 3.