Our model gives Araks Ararat a 39% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 39% for Hayq.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Araks Ararat have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Hayq have done so in 1 of their last 1.