Our model gives Ammanford a 16% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 63% for Penybont.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ammanford have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Penybont have done so in 2 of their last 3.