Our model gives Amatitlán a 48% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Juventud Copalera.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Amatitlán have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Juventud Copalera have done so in 1 of their last 4.