Our model gives América a 64% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Puebla.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, América have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Puebla have done so in 0 of their last 1.