Our model gives América Mineiro a 63% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Ponte Preta.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, América Mineiro have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Ponte Preta have done so in 0 of their last 3.