Our model gives Alvechurch a 25% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 49% for Needham Market.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Alvechurch have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Needham Market have done so in 2 of their last 3.