Our model gives Alvarado a 60% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 12% for Olimpo.

Both teams are projected to score in 35% of simulations, against 65% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 32% likelihood against 68% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Alvarado have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Olimpo have done so in 0 of their last 4.