Our model gives Aluminium Arak a 30% chance to win this one, against 40% for a draw and 30% for Kheybar Khorramabad.

Both teams are projected to score in 33% of simulations, against 67% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 23% likelihood against 77% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Aluminium Arak have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Kheybar Khorramabad have done so in 0 of their last 1.