Our model gives Almere City a 60% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 20% for Jong Ajax.

Both teams are projected to score in 63% of simulations, against 37% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 69% likelihood against 31% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Almere City have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Jong Ajax have done so in 1 of their last 1.