Our model gives Almere City a 46% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Heracles Almelo.

Both teams are projected to score in 68% of simulations, against 32% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 70% likelihood against 30% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Almere City have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Heracles Almelo have done so in 2 of their last 2.