Our model gives Almagro a 38% chance to win this one, against 33% for a draw and 29% for Colegiales.

Both teams are projected to score in 37% of simulations, against 63% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 28% likelihood against 72% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Almagro have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Colegiales have done so in 2 of their last 3.