Our model gives Alianza Petrolera a 35% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 36% for Once Caldas.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Alianza Petrolera have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Once Caldas have done so in 3 of their last 5.