Our model gives Alianza Petrolera a 44% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Deportes Tolima.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 38% likelihood against 62% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Alianza Petrolera have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Deportes Tolima have done so in 5 of their last 5.