Our model gives Alfreton Town a 34% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 41% for Guiseley.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Alfreton Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Guiseley have done so in 2 of their last 3.