Our model gives Alfreton Town a 27% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 53% for Avro.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Alfreton Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Avro have done so in 3 of their last 3.