Our model gives Aldosivi a 28% chance to win this one, against 32% for a draw and 40% for Independiente Rivadavia.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Aldosivi have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Independiente Rivadavia have done so in 3 of their last 5.