Our model gives Albirex Niigata a 32% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 39% for Kagoshima United.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Albirex Niigata have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Kagoshima United have done so in 0 of their last 1.