Our model gives Alay a 32% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 43% for Ozgon.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Alay have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Ozgon have done so in 4 of their last 4.