Our model gives Alajuelense a 67% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 13% for San Carlos.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Alajuelense have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and San Carlos have done so in 1 of their last 3.