Our model gives Alajuelense a 44% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Deportivo Saprissa.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Alajuelense have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Deportivo Saprissa have done so in 2 of their last 3.