Our model gives Al Shabab a 40% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Al Riyadh.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Al Shabab have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Al Riyadh have done so in 1 of their last 1.