Our model gives Al-Qadsiah a 56% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 22% for Al Ahli.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Al-Qadsiah have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Al Ahli have done so in 0 of their last 1.