Our model gives Al Minaa Basra a 40% chance to win this one, against 32% for a draw and 28% for Naft.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 34% likelihood against 66% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Naft have done so in 0 of their last 1.