Our model gives Al Karkh a 37% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Naft Maysan.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Al Karkh have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Naft Maysan have done so in 0 of their last 1.