Our model gives Al Karkh a 22% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 51% for Erbil.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 43% likelihood against 57% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Al Karkh have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1.