Our model gives Aktobe a 62% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Ulytau.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Aktobe have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Ulytau have done so in 2 of their last 4.