Our model gives Akhmat Grozny a 50% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Krylya Sovetov.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Akhmat Grozny have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Krylya Sovetov have done so in 1 of their last 4.