Our model gives Ajax a 57% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Shelbourne.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ajax have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Shelbourne have done so in 4 of their last 5.