Our model gives Ajax a 65% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 16% for SC Heerenveen.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ajax have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and SC Heerenveen have done so in 0 of their last 1.