Our model gives Ajax a 60% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Excelsior.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 64% likelihood against 36% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ajax have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Excelsior have done so in 1 of their last 1.