Our model gives Aguará a 40% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Deportes Rancagua.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Aguará have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Deportes Rancagua have done so in 2 of their last 3.