Our model gives Aguacatán a 62% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Santa Lucia.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Aguacatán have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Santa Lucia have done so in 3 of their last 4.