Our model gives Aguacatán a 67% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Iztapa.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Aguacatán have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Iztapa have done so in 2 of their last 4.