Our model gives Adelaide Blue Eagles a 52% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Adelaide Raiders.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Adelaide Blue Eagles have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Adelaide Raiders have done so in 1 of their last 4.