Our model gives Academia Puerto Cabello a 53% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Portuguesa.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Academia Puerto Cabello have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Portuguesa have done so in 1 of their last 3.