Our model gives AC Milan a 32% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 44% for Benfica.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Benfica have done so in 3 of their last 4.