Our model gives Abha a 46% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Al Khaleej.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Abha have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Al Khaleej have done so in 0 of their last 1.