Our model gives Abdish-Ata a 69% chance to win this one, against 17% for a draw and 14% for Kara-Balta.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Abdish-Ata have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Kara-Balta have done so in 3 of their last 3.