Our model gives Aalesund II a 49% chance to win this one, against 17% for a draw and 34% for Nardo.

Both teams are projected to score in 75% of simulations, against 25% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 84% likelihood against 16% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Aalesund II have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Nardo have done so in 3 of their last 4.