Our model gives 22 de Julio a 28% chance to win this one, against 32% for a draw and 40% for Santo Domingo.

Both teams are projected to score in 39% of simulations, against 61% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 31% likelihood against 69% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, 22 de Julio have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Santo Domingo have done so in 1 of their last 4.